IMD predicts formation of low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal by October 21

Bhubaneswar, Oct 18: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the possible formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 21, which could influence weather patterns across eastern India.

According to IMD sources, the developing system is expected to move west-northwestward toward the central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal in the following days. However, officials clarified that there is no indication yet of the system intensifying into a deep depression or cyclone.

IMD Scientist Uma Shankar Das, in a post on his official X handle, said a cyclonic circulation up to 1.5 km altitude is currently active over the South Andaman Sea and the adjacent southeast Bay of Bengal, creating favorable conditions for the low-pressure formation by October 21.

Meanwhile, global weather models show varying timelines for its development. The ECMWF predicts formation around October 24, while IMD-GFS and NCEP models expect it between October 21 and 22. The IMD’s Extended Range Forecast (ERF) suggests a 30–40% probability of cyclogenesis, whereas the ECMWF sub-seasonal outlook gives a 20–30% chance between October 20–27.

So far, 16 low-pressure systems have formed over the Bay of Bengal this year—higher than the average 12–14—bringing widespread rainfall across Odisha and neighboring states.